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| Wednesday 7 May 2003 |
| 4:00
pm – 5:00 pm
Opening Keynote: Any Device, Any Time in the Digital Home Louis
J. Burns, VP and Co-General Manager, Desktop Platforms Group, Intel “All ways Digital – All ways Connected – and Always on” Louis Burns and Kevin Corbett of Intel presentation stressed two megatrends:
Intel believes that much of home networking will be wireless, mirroring the viewpoint of CE manufacturers making or planning products with integrated wireless capabilities, including products such as networked DVD players and TVs. Intel’s demonstration at CONNECTIONS™ featured 802.l1b and a new Linksys Digital Media Adapter that links CE and PC devices. The demo incorporated a 3-D photo album with animated transitions and music that exploited a 3 GHz PC, as well as Internet music and broadcast television with the PC providing DVR capabilities. Music and TV programs were streamed from a desktop PC to TVs and stereos with impressive sound and picture quality. The scenario envisions a handheld RF remote for consumer control with menu-based options on a TV display. Louis Burns asked the question, “What’s next from Intel’s view?” And answered that question with one word: mobility. The Intel demonstration moved on video streaming to a notebook PC and a Philips iPronto tablet. The summary for all of this is that from Intel’s view, these are huge categorical opportunities and that Intel will be in the forefront, helping companies as it goes by providing solid building tools…and chipsets. |
| Thursday 8 May 2003 |
| 8:30
am – 9:00 am
Morning Keynote: Unlocking the Potential of the Digital Home
Kevin Eagan’s presentation and demo featured three Microsoft platforms: Media Center PC, Tablet PC, and Smart Display. Kevin began by plugging in and turning on a next-generation TV with built-in wireless networking. The UPnP equipped TV automatically discovered the home network, went through an authentication schemed, then displayed a TV-optimized home page with menu categories like Favorites, Recent Media, Home Controls, Family Calendar, What’s Happening, People, and more. The Media Center PC, incorporating DVR capabilities, records and stores TV programs and also provides a personalized Interactive Program Guide that displays a list of standard- and high-definition programs from satellite, terrestrial broadcast, and hard disk. Kevin provided demonstrations of useful consumer applications. For example, when the phone rings, the TV displays Caller ID information, and when one TV is paused to take the call, others TVs continue with the program. The Microsoft demonstration also featured a Windows Smart Display (wireless PC monitor), a Windows-powered Smart Phone (cell phone/PDA), and a Simple Remote Control (to manage various smart home devices). The demonstration Smart Display received wireless video and allowed its consumer to check on what other TVs were showing, thus providing some parentatl controls and check ups. Kevin also used the Smart Display to configure other home devices, add parental controls, and modify TV home pages and photo trains, as examples of possible desirable applications. The Microsoft presentation and demo reinforces the two Megatrends as enumerated by Intel…and Microsoft’s intentions to serve and share in the dollars this marketplace will generate. 9:00 am – 10:15 am The Promise of Digital in the Whole Home Moderator: Tricia
Parks, President, Parks Associates The industry leaders in this session represented a governmental and consumer sensitive perspective to the digital wonders that are now emerging. Jens Jensen of Philips suggests that homes of the future will look more like homes of the past than homes of today, and he showed examples of Philips research in Ambient Intelligence, where processors, sensors, and actuators are embedded into everyday objects. In other words, technology will be better, more powerful, and more pervasive, but less obviously visible. There seems an analogy to the gradual permeation of electricity into homes and even simple daily actions. For Philips, this normalization and, with skillful marketing and good products, even a perception of technology banality is a good and necessary market growth stage and condition. The more common and pervasive technology becomes in daily consumer lives, the more it is desired. Pat Moorhead, Vice President Marketing and Chairman of AMD’s Global Consumer Advocacy Board (GCAB) pointed to the reality of consumers adopting “new” technology and upgrades more slowly than in the past even while new products and technologies come to market faster and in more volume than ever before. The space between what a consumer has and can get is called “The Technology Gap” by AMD. It disturbs Pat and he believes that it is a warning: address the causes of “The Technology Gap” or pay the consequences of non-optimal market speed and dollars. GCAB has identified five required consumer perceptions that are necessary to optimal technology acquisition…all over the world.: Simplicity of benefits and usage, Trust in the technology and service sectors promises; Systemic Alignment (ecosystem) or value chain alignment, Socio-Economics or adequate funds and education to afford product and realize benefits; and Relevance at a personal level of understanding. GCAB is addressing this and AMD calls for a migration from a technology focus to a focus on actions and marketing to achieve the above consumer beliefs and conditions. As Assistant Secretary of Technology for the US Commerce Department, Bruce Mehlman spends a solid amount of his time explaining the benefits of technology to individual Americans and to the nation’s global competitive position. What he often discovers is a lack of real understanding about technology products, even among Congress members. According to Bruce, “If you want to wire the home, you need to plug into Washington.” He spoke of President Bush’s technology agenda, the many policy challenges, what’s being done already, and the need for the home networking industry to settle on a set of clear messages to educate policy makers on important issues,. He believes that the diffusion of digital into a majority of US homes will be a contributing factor to the US maintaining leadership in the wealth of nations. Bruce discussed the potential for telework, healthcare service, energy efficiency products, learning-at-home to offer ever increasing consumer freedom. Bruce placed the B2C e-commerce market at $95B in 2003. Bruce believes that the technology companies will benefit from clear messaging to and educating the policy makers in Washington. 10:35 am – 11:35 am The Global Inventures Connected Circle: Building A Foundation for Success Moderator: Deepak
Kamlani, Founder, President, and CEO, Global Inventures Inc. Global Inventures is now working with CEA to migrate standards efforts into real-world standards. Its teams have joined with five alliances to discuss and mitigate the challenges in making products work well in real environments and with other standards. To a person, the panelists agree that products must be easier to set up and maintain because problems affect initial sales and the volume of returns. In sum, these along with word of mouth about poor consumer experiences with integrated technologies stem industry growth. For the manufacturers, these issues combined with the raw expense of sending technicians into homes to fix mistakes of failed integrated systems are difficult to manage and simply too expensive over the long haul.
11:35 am – 11:55 am The Future is Integration: Service Delivery Platforms John Marshall, Vice President of Marketing, 2Wire Inc. John Marshall’s vision for home networking encompasses telephony and entertainment as well as traditional PC-to-PC connections. To fulfill this vision, 2Wire believes an integrated gateway with multiple capabilities is essential. Some key points of John Marshall’s presentation are below:
12:00 pm – 1:00 pm
Moderator: Kurt
Scherf, Vice President, Research, Parks Associates In a standing-room-only session, this panel tackled multiple contentious issues around copyrighted content. Current industries issues discussed by this panel include the following:
There are many opinions and viewpoints on these issues; however, there also exists some agreement. Panelists agree on the following points:
The panel agreed that wireless networks will become ubiquitous in the near future; however, there was heated debate over which technologies will dominate the marketplace and what requirements will shape the value chain. Some panelists maintain that Wi-Fi™ had the momentum to dominate completely, while others insist that additional technologies such as Bluetooth and WiMAX have a place as well. There was also sharp disagreement over the roles each Wi-Fi standard (A, B, and G) will play. In another hiatus of agreement, panelists agree that consumers were not well educated about Wi-Fi, but consensus ends there. Panelists disagree over solutions to the challenge. Some proffer education as solution; others state that there must be easier to understand technology. Regarding the value chain, many expressed skepticism that “free” Wi-Fi access will persist due to user needs for high quality service and reliability as well as the legal issues raised by “free” access. There was also general acknowledgement that the increasing competitiveness of the Wi-Fi equipment industry will drive prices (and margins) downward. Because Wi-Fi is a standard technology, companies are finding it difficult to differentiate from each other on the retail shelf. While all agree that wireless will be ubiquitous in the future, it is also clear that…
This panel identified and discussed key issues for value-added services, including the following:
1:00 pm – 2:30 pm Luncheon Keynote: Real-time Digital Connectivity: The Coming Revolution in Home and Professional Digital Electronics
Mr. Juszkiewicz repeatedly stressed that as a consumer, he “hates technology.” Consumers, he states, do not want and should not need to understand the mechanics behind consumer electronics. To highlight this fact, he pointed out the numerous means of interconnecting devices such as TVs/VCRs/ PCs/musical instruments/etc. By his count, 32 standard efforts are underway. Henry believes this morass of efforts needs streamlining. Instead of continuing participation in the quagmire of all these efforts, the consumer electronics, telecommunications, computing, and entertainment industries (as well as others) should join together and create a single interface standard that meets everyone’s needs. He then offered Gibson Labs’ new Magic technology and consortium as a vehicle through which this could be achieved.
2:30 pm – 3:30 pm
Moderator: Yuanzhe
(Michael) Cai, Analyst, Parks Associates This panel discussion provided differing views of how future network-connected entertainment devices will evolve. This panel was limited to one hour, but it was clear within five minutes of the start that the panel discussion could have lasted hours and that everyone in the room cared about the many issues under discussion.
Moderator: Claudia
Bacco, President, TeleChoice The panel identified and discussed many wireless issues, including:
Moderator: Michael
Greeson, Vice President, Principal Analyst, Parks Associates The panel first turned its attention to defining “telematics,” with one member joking that the auto industry invented this word to avoid the more mundane phrase “broadband-in-your-car.” Panelists discussed several potential applications and services, mostly drawn from the healthcare and automotive industries but with other industrial uses also noted. The potential benefits of telematics were then weighed against privacy concerns, with some agreement that legal issues must first be resolved before the field will properly mature. Finally, a debate ensued over how greatly telematics may benefit personal health. One side envisions that the immediate feedback provided by telematics will result in healthier lifestyles, while an opposing view stressed that individual will, more than technology, was needed to change people’s behavior.
3:40 pm – 4:40 pm CLOSING PLENARY – Leader Reflections: Strategies for Investing in Home Networking Moderator: Kurt
Scherf, Vice President, Parks Associates Despite the burst of the dot-com bubble, the venture community is still seeking investment opportunities in the home networking space. This panel included Bruce Eatroff and Stephen Saltzman - from BMO Halyard Partners and Intel Capital, respectively - who are already quite active in providing capital to companies in home networking. The third representative - Jeremy Levine from Bessemer Venture Partners - is investigating whether home networking makes a good investment for his company at the present time. Beginning on a lighter note, the panelists shared a laugh when asked by Kurt Scherf how much credence the venture community places in analyst forecasts for different markets. BMO Halyard’s Bruce Eatroff noted that the analyst community still provides investors with a very good understanding of how markets are likely to evolve. However, he – along with his fellow panelists – stressed that due diligence is an absolutely critical step in determining where capital can we wisely spent in this industry. Investors are looking for realistic business plans and for solutions that - although they may not be touted as “changing the world” - meet a well-defined market need. |
| Friday 9 May 2003 |
| 8:00
am – 9:15 am
Whole Home Entertainment Distribution — Creating Value Throughout the Chain Moderator: Bill
Rose, President, WJR Consulting The panel focused mostly on the obstacles to whole-home entertainment distribution, noting that the lack of a quality distribution method was the primary challenge. DVRs and wireless LANs whet appetites for entertainment networks, but more is needed. Besides a storage medium such as a PC or media server, you need a way to get the content onto other devices such as TVs, stereos, PCs, and discs. Consumers have higher demands and expectations for entertainment products as compared to PCs, and they will not tolerate frequent interruptions of service nor complex installation procedures. Nonetheless, new digital services can increase revenue and reduce churn and are therefore still attractive to service providers despite technical challenges and digital rights management issues. In short, video distribution improves stickiness and cost savings without duplicating set-top stacks. Providers need secure and profitable distribution, implying digital rights management and fewer returns. Consumers want fast and rock-solid connections with no excuses (no pause while “buffering”), and this demands better than today’s no-new-wires solutions. Connections in the rack and room will be wired with 1394 and wireless with WiMedia, and coax is preferred for whole-house distribution, since its multi-gigabit capacity can last for 20+ years. Multiple video streams require at least 100 Mbps performance and even faster for smooth fast-forward. And while some content owners demand DRM, usage rules, and specific bandwidth and resolution, there’s plenty of non-restricted content available today. To successfully sell new services, operators must first make consumers comfortable with it by offering free trials, and ease of use. Consumer challenges include awareness education, easier installation (existing media with no truck rolls), and no change to consumer behavior. Comcast, for example, offers free VOD to help sell users on pay VOD.
9:15 am – 10:25 am
The panel presented differing views on the role of computers vs. traditional consumer electronics for digital entertainment and highlighted several challenges facing PCs. It was noted that a PC’s form factor makes it unsuitable for passive entertainment; consumers are and will remain reluctant to watch movies and television on a computer. Furthermore, the technical difficulties surrounding digital media adapters, particularly with regard to video, will make it hard to transfer content from a PC to other devices. Regarding CE platforms, the panel noted that a lack of interoperability between remote controls has frustrated consumers by forcing them to use several simultaneously. It also recognized that digital set-top boxes are simply becoming PCs.
Tony Barra presented consumer market research that described the voice of the consumer. The talk presented three ecosystems: Family, Entertainment, and Career. Results indicate that work is not an isolated place anymore; 66% of consumers bring work home. Current research that addresses these ecosystems includes health and fitness needs assessment, calendaring, and community portals.
Best Buy, RadioShack, and Sears want home networking for mainstream consumers but must offer installation services, and this “geek mobile” support implies complexity. Embedded processors, sensors, and actuators will enable simpler products that discover each other and smart agents that learn. Tony Barra went on to describe some Internet Home Alliance trial projects, including Mealtime pilot, Family Ecosystem, OnStar at Home, and Work is Not a Place. Win Burleson presented historical and recent research from MIT. Some of the research that was described was: the Smart Bed, Attentive Appliances, Wearable Devices, Intelligent Windshield, Intel Planetary Networks, Kitchen Counter Displays, Playful Appliances, Musical Lego Blocks, and Dynamic Architecture. Other research projects of note included:
The success of the “connected communities” concept rests heavily on the quality of partnerships created to execute the community benefits. . In the case of this panel, the partnerships formed include the service provider, the developer, and an integrator who can explain technology concepts in an easy-to-understand manner. The Newhall Land case study provides a good example of this interoperability between and among the players. As more than 50,000 fully networked homes become occupied, the two communities discussed may become benchmarks to apply to other similar projects. 10:45 am – 11:55 am
The session focused on the challenge and opportunities of distributing products and services that provide connected home solutions in channels appropriate to the state of technology complexity and consumer requirements. Parks Associates forecasts that home networking will grow from its current U.S. HH penetration of 10%to 26% by 2007. These panelists discussed what channel options will make that forecast a reality. Among topics discussed were the following:
Summary panelist opinions are below.
Moderator: David Dern, Marketing Director, CABA Each panelist outlined his company’s position in the market, products and services, and views on the overall direction the market is taking. In short, these panelists find that digital services, especially entertainment, are very attractive to consumers, but also believe that the unreliability of PCs makes them an unsuitable platform for these services in the home. While the panel acknowledged the important roll of PCs, panelists believe that the PC itself is neither reliable and nor robust enough to be the controlling centerpiece of a networked home. Furthermore, several panelists discussed the speed of PC technology evolution as an obstacle to necessary long life requirements of a central home controller. Discussion of CEA’s TechHome Rating System (www.ce.org) helps define the value of home networking technologies today, but what about 20 years out, since the PC industry has taught us that it’s difficult to imagine the future? To help meet “length of system life” requirements, these panelists recommend using open and established standards, trusted brands and channels (e.g. Best Buy, Radio Shack, and Sears vs. custom installers), and wiring flexibility (home run). That’s why Home Director is based on Linux, IP, Java, XML, and HTML for the user interface supplemented by Flash. In the end, service providers must sell “lifestyles” and not technologies or services. Because consumers generally “hate technology,” successful products will provide…
Although the main thrust for home networking concentration has been focused on North America in these initial stages, Europe and Asia will represent significant areas of growth. This panel consisted of representatives from a number of companies with experience in selling broadband and home networking applications to multiple markets, and they shared their perspectives on a number of topics. With representation from two players in powerline communications on the panel (ITRAN Communications and nSine), it was interesting to hear their perspective on the possibilities for "last-mile" powerline broadband access. Both Avnor Matmor from ITRAN and Peter Strong from nSine expressed their skepticism that powerline broadband delivery would become a real competitive threat to traditional broadband access technologies in either Europe or Asia. Instead, they are focusing on in-home distribution systems that may complement offerings from energy companies. Graham Nicholls from Homeportal indicated that the energy utilities in Europe and Asia may be more forward-looking in their plans to deliver additional value-added services to end-users. Given regulatory and market issues (i.e., sometimes inadequate energy supplies) in various international markets, Nicholls indicated that energy management applications (among a variety of value-added services) may indeed gain increased traction outside of North America, at least in initial stages. Lixin Cheng from Ericsson shared his extensive experience about the Chinese market. He defined Guanx – frequently translated as relationship or connections – as “closed relationship” which requires mutual trust and personal friendship. When asked about the decline of Ericsson’s share loss in the Chinese handset market, he explained that Ericsson traditionally focused more on the improvement of the internal technologies of mobile phones and neglected updates of external features. The strategy proved to be inappropriate in a country where handsets were treated as fashion items and entertainment tools. He also elaborated on the difference between the Chinese/Asian market, where the focus was “from Mobile to Internet”, and the U.S. market, where the focus was “from Internet to Mobile.” The high penetration of mobile phones and relatively low penetration of Internet in China requires a mindset of creating Internet/data applications for the mobile phone platform, instead of the other way around. |
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CONNECTIONS™ 2003: The Digital Home Showcase & Conference |
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CONNECTIONS™: The Digital Home Showcase and Conference, produced by Parks Associates in partnership with the Consumer Electronics Association, is the largest international executive conference for digital home technologies.
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